Baseball Junkies: Annual Predictions (Part 1)

Indeed, it's that time of year... time for us to show why we have yet to quit our day jobs. 

As it turns out, picking winners is really not that easy.  You don't need to go to far to see how bad we are at this stuff.  Last year, none of us picked the Cardinals to win the NL Central.  Even worse, none of us had the Red Sox higher than fourth in the AL East. 

But picking "winners" is a rite of passage for baseball bloggers.  So without further adieu, here are our choices... please don't bet on them.

HERSH

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

The Nationals are the best team in the east and should put it together this year.  A year older and moving Ryan Zimmerman to first should help.  


NL Central
Cardinals
*Reds 
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

The Cards are still the class of the central, but Reds will make them earn it; I don't see a repeat from the Pirates.  

NL West
Dodgers
*Giants 
Diamondbacks 
Padres
Rockies

The Dodgers have too much talent not to win the division, but I see a great improvement from the Giants this year and D'backs are much improved also.

AL East
Yankees
*Rays 
Red Sox 
Blue Jays
Orioles

Red Sox lost too much to repeat.  A.J Pierzynski will not replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate at 38 years old. The Yankees lost some players, but picked up some key players in Beltran, Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Tanaka.  The Rays will be good again because of Joe Madden.  

AL Central
Tigers
Royals
Indians
White Sox
Twins

The Tigers are class of central and there's nobody to challenge them.  

AL West
A's
Angels 
Rangers
Mariners
Astros

The A's might win 100 games with that rotation and the pick up of Johnson as closer.  The Angels will be fighting for their manager's job and have to make playoffs.

NL Champ: Dodgers
AL Champ: Yankees
WS Champ: Yankees

I see a Dodgers-Yankees world series this year.  The Dodgers might pull it out, but don't bet on it.  Yankees win it all.


MC

NL EAST

Washington Nationals
*Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins

The Nationals did not play to their potential last year, and should have won the division over the Braves.  Pitching was so-so except for Jordan Zimmerman who had his best year as a pro.  On paper, the Nats are the best team in the division.  The Braves young players overachieved last year despite their two highest paid players, BJ Upton and Dan Uggla, disappearing for the whole season.  Neither one hit their weight last year, but they were picked up largely by Freddie Freeman and good solid pitching.  The loss of Brian McCann could be tough not only because of production, but also the handling of a relatively young staff and pen.  The Mets are still in re-build mode and will only take them as far as injuries will allow.  Matt Harvey is out for the season which all but crushes any sort of run the Mets could take, however unlikely that would have been.  The Mets added many high risk/high reward players this offseason that could either keep them relevant or sink the ship entirely.  Granderson has shown tremendous homerun power the past few years, but Citi Field does not have the short porches he enjoyed across town.  The Phils still have name/star recognition on paper with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.  The problem here is a combination of age and physical wear and tear.  I foresee a lot of injuries for the Phillies this year as they are very old in baseball terms. Rollins, Utley, Marlon Byrd, Lee, Carlos Ruiz, and A.J. Burnett are all 35 or older with Howard just behind at 34.  Of course if no one gets hurt, Hamels bounces right back, and the veterans produce like they still can, the Phils could very easily take the division.  The Marlins are once again the youngest team by far in the league with limited star power and experience.  Although the Marlins will undoubtedly struggle this year, they do boast perhaps the best young pitcher in the league in Jose Fernandez.  He was a Cy Young candidate on many lists last year, and could be primed for a breakout season once again. 

NL CENTRAL

St. Louis Cardinals
*Pittsburgh Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs

I think St. Louis is again the team to beat even with the loss of Beltran to the Yanks.  They picked up Jhonny Peralta coming off a suspension season but he still hit .303.  The rest of their high achieving players are still intact.  On the mound, they get a full year of Michael Wacha and are hoping for a good sophomore season out of Shelby Miller.  With ace Adam Wainwright and a consistent Lance Lynn, they have the best staff in the division.  The Pirates, coming off their first winning season in 22 years, are really only as strong as their pitching.  They have some nicely rounded pieces in the lineup with Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Pedro Alvarez.  If Francisco Liriano can produce another 16-8 season and they can replace Burnett with a quality year from aging Wandy Rodriguez, then they could compete for the division.  They could very well be a wild card team again.  The Reds didn’t seem to do much to improve in the offseason, but they did win 90 games last year and vied for the division and wildcard.  The Brewers and Cubs also didn’t impress with offseason moves, however the Brew Crew did get back Braun from suspension.

NL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres   

This is clearly the Dodgers division to win or lose.  They are becoming the NL’s version of the Yankees with a very large payroll and some big personalities to deal with for Don Mattingly.  They are a contender for best pitching staff in the league too, especially if Dan Haren can find the magic again.  After the Dodgers, it could go a number of different ways.  The D-backs and Giants could flip positions for 2nd and 3rd with the Giants still having strong pitching.  The D-backs probably have a little better lineup than the Giants.  Colorado and San Diego will most likely vie for the basement in this division, with neither team really upgrading since last year.  If anyone unseats the Dodgers, there must have been a meltdown of epic proportions in the west.


AL EAST

Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees*
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays

This is a tightly contested division going into 2014 with the Orioles beginning to show they can hang with the traditional power houses.  Boston is aging an again has injury risk this year.  They didn’t add much but lost a great player in Ellsubry to the Yankees.  The Yankees did the most in the offseason and had the most drastic change.  They lost Curtis Granderson, Cano, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez.  They gained, either through signing or back from injury, Mark Teixieria, Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Alfonso Soriano, Brian Roberts, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Masahiro Tanaka.  The pitching struggled mightily last year which must change for them to contend.  The Rays have good young pitching to go with an okay lineup.  They could lose the 2nd spot due to the Yankees re-bulking up.  The Orioles are a wildcard, and could make a run, but don’t quite have the pitching the rest of the division holds.  The Jays won’t be much in contention after the first few weeks. 

AL CENTRAL

Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox

There’s no reason to think the division won’t play out exactly as it did a year ago.  The one for one trade of Kinsler for Fielder should prove an interesting experiment for both teams.  The Tigers still have the best hitter in the game as well as back to back Cy Youngs still in their prime.  The Tigers are aging, but still have decent lineup support for Miguel Cabrera.  The Indians have a good young nucleus that seems to play well together and understand roles.  There isn’t much star power, but they managed to win 92 games last year and nearly take the division.  The remaining three teams are pretty much the same as they were a year ago.  Not much improvement and nothing to suggest a serious run at the division.

AL WEST

Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels*
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros

The Rangers have a great balance of lineup and pitching and having Fielder in the lineup can finally add some support for Adrian Beltre that was lost when Hamilton left.  They have good young pitching just entering their prime with Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, and Tommy Hanson.  They also added Shin Soo Choo and acquired Alex Rios last year.  The Angels can be very relevant again if Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton bounce back.  Both had down production last year and are crucial to the Halos’ success.  If the Rangers and Angels improve, the A’s could slip in this division.  They have good role players that produced last year, but also lost 18 game winner Bartolo Colon.  The pitching will need to match the lineup production for them to be division champs again.  Seattle acquired perhaps the best free agent of the year with Robinson Cano, but it won’t be enough to propel them to the top in the west.  They have a good 1-2 punch with Hernandez and Iwakuma, but the rest of the staff is under-experienced.  Finally, the Astros are also in a major rebuild and should not be relevant to the chase this season.


AL Pennant – Detroit Tigers
NL Pennant – Los Angeles Dodgers

WS Winner – Los Angeles Dodgers


I think this is the year they put it together.  They have immense talent on the field and on the mound.  They possess 4 solid outfielders, strong in the infield, and have 4th/5th starters that could be aces (or #2s on other teams).  The Tigers are a bit of a risky pick as there is more parity in the AL than the NL.  The Red Sox could come out strong again, and the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels all have potential.  In the end, it’s the Dodgers season to win or lose the whole thing.


OCP


AL East
Orioles
*Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Blue Jays

There is so much talent in this group that I could see any of these teams emerging as the alpha dog.  The Orioles added Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez – two major contributors on a team that was so close last year (10 games over .500 at the break last year) which I why I have them pegged to win the division.  We all know about Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran but what the Yankees don’t have is just as big as what they do have (they don’t have Robinson Cano).  I think their pitching depth and speed will carry them to a postseason berth but I wouldn’t call them the favorites.  It would be safe to say that no one is going to overlook the Red Sox, right?  I mean, they can’t do what they did last year again, could they?  I don’t have them in the top three – they lost too much – but like I said, this division is definitely up for grabs and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them emerge if they stay healthy.

AL Central
Indians
*Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins

I know I’m a little late to the party with this one but there is a lot to like about the young Indians.  For starters, the top three in their rotation is not too shabby and their bullpen is very strong.  There is a lot to like across the diamond and I think that last years’ experience (losing the division by one game) will benefit them as much as anyone.  It’s obviously the Tigers division to lose but losing Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta will hurt and they are already down a starting shortstop in Jose Iglesias.  The Royals are getting better but trading away Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi was perplexing to me.  I don’t think they have enough but they could surprise me.  The White Sox have a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate in Jose Abreu but I just don’t see enough in their rotation to call them a contender.

AL West
Angels
Mariners
Rangers
A’s
Astros

Admittedly, I might be a year early with the Mariners as high as I have them but there is a lot to like here.  They have a ton of depth everywhere you look and they boast one of the most electric group of arms you’ll find in baseball.  Again, they might be too young to make it work but it will be fun to watch.  The Rangers should be fun to watch, too.  With Shin Soo Choo and Prince and the rest of the bats they’ve got, they should have no problems scoring runs.  I just don’t know if their rotation will hold up.  The A’s were probably a favorite for a lot of people but losing Jarrod Parker, their opening day starter, will hurt.

NL East
Nationals
*Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Mets

Have you seen Bryce Harper?  I mean, have you SEEN the dude this spring?  He looks like a cross between a lumberjack and a dude who ate a dude.  Considering the trainwreck spring training the Braves have had, the Nationals have to be the clear favorite in the NL East.  The Marlins are young and fun and could surprise people, the Mets have to wait for Matt Harvey and the Phillies have a lot of old guys trying to prove that they’ve still got it.  I guess I’ll take the Phillies out of that bunch.  Who knows, maybe there's still a little magic left in that bunch.

NL Central
Cardinals
*Brewers
Pirates
Reds
Cubs

The Brewers rotation is sneaky good and they have some real punch in their lineup… I wouldn’t be surprised if they de-throned the Cardinals but it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Cardinals don’t win.  They’re simply too deep and too talented.  Even if a couple guys get hurt, they’ve still got a ton of options to weather the storm.  I’m not as high on the Reds as others may be.  Let’s see Billy Hamilton get on base first before we crown him the second coming of, well, Sliding Billy Hamilton.

NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Rockies
Diamondbacks
Padres

The Dodgers are the cream of the crop in the NL.  A year together should make them even more dangerous.  The Diamondbacks have a lot of punch but their rotation could ill-afford to lose an arm and, unfortunately, they did when Patrick Corbin hit the shelf this spring.  I think that the Rockies could surprise people… if CarGo and Brett Anderson can stay healthy they might have enough to squeak in.  I picked the Giants to finish ahead of them but I’m watching the Rockies.

AL Champ - Tigers
NL Champ - Dodgers

WS Champ – Dodgers

If the Tigers get in, they’re probably the favorite to emerge from the AL because of their rotation.  In a head to head match up, I just think the Dodgers are a better all-around better team.  Rotation, bullpen, defense, offense… I think the Dodgers lead the way from wire to wire.  

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